Pull the trigger with confidence.

We look deeper into market trends. Our analysis puts our readers ahead of price movements... and ahead of the public. For over 40 years, institutional investors and individual traders have relied on our forecasts. Get the edge you've been missing.

   Subscribe Now

Household Debt Shrinking

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Debt is bad, at least for you and me.  But debt held by others can be a wonderful thing, as long as it is increasing. Debt is only a problem at the point somebody decides to do something about it.

The unfortunate fact for stock market investors is that household credit market debt as a percentage of disposable personal income has been shrinking ever since the peak back in 2007.  Normally it is bullish for stock prices to see household debt increasing, and bearish to have household debt... Read More

Bund Spread’s Message for the Stock Market

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The folks who watch international bond yields have been giving a lot of attention lately to the fact that the spread between the 10-year U.S Treasury Note and the equivalent government bond from Germany is now up to its widest point since 2005.  CNBC's Rick Santelli showed a chart of it in a segment on April 2, 2014, and what caught my eye was how much that yield spread looked like the behavior of the stock market. 

So I downloaded the data on German yields from the St. Louis Fed,... Read More

Crude Oil Commercial Traders Bet on Decline

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It has not caught much attention in the financial media, but just 3 weeks ago, the commercial traders of crude oil futures reached an all-time high in terms of a net short position.  The commercial traders are the big money, and thus they are presumed to be the smart money.  But quite often they will get to a skewed position well ahead of a turn for crude oil prices.

Commercial traders include producers and big oil consuming companies like refiners.  As a group, they have been continuously... Read More

Gold Bugs Cheer The Rain

 
weekly Chart In Focus

I live near Tacoma, WA, in what is playfully known as the "Pacific Northwet".  Like the old story about the Eskimos having 31 different words for snow, we know how to make jokes about the rain here. 

The rainy season?  If you are ever planning a trip to the Pacific Northwet, you should know that the rainy season begins October 1, and ends September 30, so it is best to try to work around those dates.

The Mount Rainier Weather Forecasting Method: If you look outside, and cannot see Mount... Read More

Copper Breaking Its Correlation

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It was a fun correlation while it lasted. 

From 2008 to early 2012, copper prices displayed a very strong correlation to the movements of the SP500.  Even more importantly, whenever copper prices would show a sign of weakness that the SP500 did not show, it was nearly always the case that copper ended up being proven right about where both were headed, as I discussed here.

Prior to 2008, the relationship was decidedly mixed.  Sometimes copper prices would move in sync with the SP500, and... Read More

A Divergence Among Nasdaq 100 Stocks

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has been leading the way higher, making higher highs and higher lows all throughout 2013 and into 2014.  But it has been doing so with diminishing participation. 

This week's chart shows an indicator whose value is featured every day in our Daily Edition.  It measures the number of component stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index which are above their 100-day simple moving averages.  As the market advances, more stocks rise in sympathy and this indicator goes to higher... Read More

Housing Stocks Due for a Dip

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The rally in housing stocks that I wrote about last November has been proceeding pretty much according to plan.  That's the good news.  The bad news for investors is that lumber prices now say the housing related sector is due for a temporary dip.

Housing related stocks should see a recovery, for the most part, from that mid-year dip.  But by the time that the bottom arrives, history suggests that no one will be believing in any recovery. 

The key insight behind this forecast is a... Read More

Yield Curve’s Message For GDP

 
weekly Chart In Focus

One of the really fun leading indication relationships involves the yield curve, the spread between interest rates on similar securities across different maturities.  The real yield curve has too many data points each day for visual modeling, and so a simplistic model of the yield curve can suffice to make for easier modeling.  In this week's chart, the role of the entire yield curve is portrayed by the spread between the 10-year T-Note yield and the 3-month T-Bill yield.

The fun thing that... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

04/16/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC 34.515 23685
Sum Index 3110.502 943178

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.