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RASI Shows Bull Market Waning

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The Summation Index was invented by my parents back in 1969, as a companion to the McClellan Oscillator.  But it was in more recent years that we refined our understanding of the importance of the Summation Index in revealing what lies ahead for the stock market.

To understand this important point, we need to explore and define a principle of rocketry known as “escape velocity”.  This term is variously (and sometimes confusingly) defined as the velocity which a projectile needs in order to... Read More

Gold Priced In Euros Has Gone Quiet

 
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I like to tell my newsletter readers that if you want to look at a chart of gold prices to get a good technical perspective, then look at gold as priced in euros, rather than in dollars.

The dollar price of gold just does not seem to behave in as orderly a fashion from a chartist’s perspective as the euro price does.  The dollar price does not particularly exhibit support and resistance behavior at static price levels, and its trendline breaks seem to come after the corresponding trendline... Read More

Gold Shows Real Reason for Oil’s Dip

 
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Crude oil prices had been hovering around the $60/barrel level since late April 2015, seemingly held at a quiet hover.  But it has just recently broken its hold on that price level, with a move downward that has been attributed to the economic uncertainty in Greece.

This is a classic case of the news media seeing a price event, and seeing a news story at the same time, then concluding that the two must be related.  My explanation is different: oil is dipping now because that is on the... Read More

QQQ Volume Spikes on Selloff

 
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When the situation in Greece came to a head over the past weekend, traders responded with one of the biggest one-day selloffs we have seen in recent months.  It was not actually a big day in absolute terms, but compared to what we have become used to lately, it was a pretty scary day.

ETF traders responded by ramping up the volume in QQQ, the ETF that is designed to match the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index.  Fellow analyst Jason Goepfert of www.sentimentrader.com turned me on to the... Read More

British Pound’s July Turning Point

 
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I will confess that I am not a “currencies guy”, although one of my early experiences with trading did involve currencies.  I was stationed in West Germany (so-called then, before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989), and I lived “on the economy” instead of in Army housing.  That meant that I had to procure Deutschemarks in order to pay my rent every month.

In those days, the Armed Forces Network (AFN) of radio stations would broadcast the exchange rate applicable for the next day at 1400... Read More

The Magic of 150 Months

 
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In a recent article featured in our twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter, we featured the chart shown this week.  It was inspired by some work done recently by famed technical analyst Peter Eliades, who has been a newsletter writer for many years and is the proprietor of www.stockmarketcycles.com

The basic point is that a period of 150 months (12.5 years) shows up in lots of places as the time distance between several important turning points for stock prices.  The price data... Read More

Uranium and Gold, Part II

 
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Last week, I wrote about the relationship between gold prices and uranium prices, and how looking at it a certain way there might be a bearish message for uranium prices.  I received a few emails, first notifying me that you actually can trade uranium on the Toronto exchange, under the symbol U.TO.  That is for the Uranium Participation Corp, which invests directly in uranium oxides.  It is like CEF or GLD for gold bullion, only for uranium. 

But a much more interesting message came from a... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

07/27/2015 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -182.389 -269191
Sum Index -79.980 -2219048

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.