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2-Year T-Note Shows Path For FOMC

 
weekly Chart In Focus

I wrote back in 2011 that the Fed could do a lot better with interest rate policy if the FOMC would just outsource the decision making task to the bond market, specifically the 2-year T-Note yield.  The point is still the same, and the FOMC is still seemingly unaware.

To review briefly, this week’s chart shows a comparison between the 2-year Treasury Note yield and the target rate for Fed Funds, which is set by the FOMC.  The NY Fed is then tasked with adding or withdrawing money available... Read More

Architecture Billings Index Flashes Warning

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The latest news from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) has some economists alarmed, because it shows a potential shrinkage in housing related activity.  The AIA publishes data based on surveys of member firms, known as Architecture Billings Indices, and their two main index products are the Billings Index and the Inquiries Index.  Billings represents actual work that gets billed to the customer, while Inquiries is a softer data set reflecting customers potentially generating new... Read More

Crude Oil Leads the Euro

 
weekly Chart In Focus

There is information about the future of the euro, and it is hidden in plain sight, right in the chart of crude oil prices.  

This week’s chart reveals that relationship, which is yet another example in a long series of what I call “liquidity wave” relationships.  That refers to the phenomenon of a price structure appearing in one market’s price plot, and then appearing again sometime later in another.  I liken it to an ocean wave appearing at the end of a pier, and then hitting the beach... Read More

Pessimism Evident in QQQ Shares Outstanding

 
weekly Chart In Focus

QQQ is the ETF which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, and even though that index is only down 2.7% from its recent multi-year high, investors have been fleeing out of QQQ for the past few months.

This week’s chart shows the number of shares outstanding in QQQ, a figure which changes every day as traders and investors become more or less interested in owning that ETF.  The sponsoring firm, Invesco PowerShares, issues or redeems shares as necessary in order to keep the share price as close as... Read More

Dollar Is Wandering Off Track

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates.  We are told, “Money goes where it is treated best”, and so the currency which offers the best interest rate will attract the most capital. 

But that does not really explain what has been happening over the past year.  The US Federal Reserve has kept short term interest rates near zero, and just about every other central bank around the world has done the same.  But the US... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

03/02/2015 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC 45.635 -13809
Sum Index 3087.140 1723243

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.