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We Americans Are a Pessimistic Lot

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Americans are generally pessimistic about the economy.  Perhaps that feature is our strength, and is what makes us work harder than the rest of the world to get ahead.

The Gallup Company has been polling Americans for years, and periodically including a poll question about whether respondents think that the economy is getting better, or getting worse.  This week’s chart shows the difference between those two choices, dating back to 1997.  For most of that period, the stock market has been... Read More

GLD Assets Show Resurgent Interest in Gold

 
weekly Chart In Focus

In spite of dollar strength, gold prices have rallied up from the low we saw back in mid-December.  It took a while, but this rally has finally started to bring more interest from retail gold investors. 

The SPDR Gold Trust, symbol GLD, reports total assets held in the ETF every day.  Asset levels vary along with investor interest.  If more investors want to own GLD, then the price goes up above the net asset value (NAV), and so the sponsoring firm issues more shares to restore the proper... Read More

Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy

 
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Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor.  If consumers are spending less of their money on gasoline, then they ought to have more to spend on other stuff, or so goes the reasoning.  So why is it not working? 

The problem is one of magnitude, and most analysts fail to take the time to do the math.  So at the risk of boring you with arithmetic,... Read More

Housing Stocks Falling On Schedule

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Who cares about lumber futures prices? 

You should, if you care about housing sector stocks, new home sales, interest rates, and other important data series.  Lumber seems to be a magical predictor of where lots of things are headed.  

In this week’s chart, lumber prices are shifted 1 year forward to reveal how the movements of the PHLX Housing Sector Index, HGX, tend to follow in the same footsteps.  This is a long-lasting relationship, not some newfangled and fanciful recent... Read More

Groundhog Day in T-Bonds

 
weekly Chart In Focus

T-Bond prices are repeating the pattern of a year ago.  This has been going on for a couple of years, and it persists even today.  

This is important because at the end of January 2015, we saw a really important price top for T-Bonds, followed by a pretty serious decline.  So if the correlation is going to continue into the future, then we have a similar prospect for February 2016 to get ready for. 

The correlation has not always worked like what we are seeing now.  In the middle of the... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

02/12/2016 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -14.388 8973
Sum Index -1117.534 -4754776

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.