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Election Years Are Different

 
weekly Chart In Focus

We are now firmly into this election year, with both major parties' candidates determined.  This moment is pretty early for that type of resolution.  It has also been more than a century since a former president served as a major party's candidate seeking reelection (and no, Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party run in 1912 does not count).

Most of the time, election years are up years for the stock market.  But there are big differences during the year depending on whether there is an... Read More

Quiet McClellan Oscillator

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Since late January 2024, the daily readings of the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator have been contained in a very tight range.  They have also been showing us only "simple" structures, which carries and interesting message.

A "complex" structure in the McClellan Oscillator (and in some other indicators too) is one that sees chopping up and down while on one side of the zero neutral level.  The message of a complex structure is that the side on which it forms is the side that is "in charge". ... Read More

Crude Oil Says Stocks Heading for Unpleasant Time

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Years ago, I discovered the fun leading indication relationship shown in this week's chart, which reveals how the movements of crude oil prices tend to show up again as stock price movements about 10 years later.  I do not have a good explanation for why this relationship works, but it has been working for the most part ever since the DJIA was first created back in 1896.  At some point, when there is this much evidence, one can let go of the quest for the "why", and accept the "is".

There... Read More

Taxes Will Bite the Stock Market

 
weekly Chart In Focus

If you want to know what future federal tax collections are going to look like, just look at what the stock market has done over the past 12 months.  I figure that the Congressional Budget Office does not know about this trick.  This week's chart shows the SP500, shifted forward by a year.  The lower line represents the 12-month trailing total of federal tax receipts.  I use the 1-year time offset to help illustrate how tax collections lag whatever the stock market does a year earlier. 

... Read More

HY Bond A-D Line Rehabilitates a Divergence

 
weekly Chart In Focus

I like to say that a divergence is a "condition", and not a "signal".  This is an important distinction which sometimes confuses people, so I will elaborate.

A "signal" in chartist terms is something with a precise moment of indication, like seeing a price cross through a moving average, or seeing a Price Oscillator reverse direction.  A signal is therefore testable, if one were testing an automated trading system.

A "condition" is something which exists on a chart, but which does not... Read More

Manheim Used Vehicle Index and M2

 
weekly Chart In Focus

I like to find interesting comparisons between seemingly unrelated data, because they offer insights that some people might not have thought of.  Someone asked me recently how I come up with such comparisons.  My answer is that sometimes it stems from asking the data what relationship there might be.  Other times, I see a chart pattern that is familiar (because I stare at charts all day), and so I seek to put the two together.  That latter method is the case for this week's chart.

It has... Read More

Complex or Simple Structures, a Message About Who Is In Control

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Here is a fun magic trick which some technical indicators can do.  This week's chart shows the 14-3 stochastic oscillator for T-Bond futures prices.  14-3 means a 14 trading day lookback period, and a 3-day simple moving average for smoothing.  Right now this indicator is forming a "complex" structure below the 50 neutral level, and that carries a message that the bears are in charge at the moment.

By "complex", I mean that there has been some chopping up and down without a crossing of the... Read More

Bitcoin ETF Approvals Likely Mark Important Price Top

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The SEC finally gave approval to trade for 11 different spot Bitcoin ETFs, a long-anticipated action that many analysts and traders are expecting will increase demand for Bitcoins, now that ordinary investors can "own" Bitcoin in their brokerage accounts.  But what the crowd believes will happen is often the opposite of what turns out.

I noted here back on Nov. 4, 2023 that total open interest was spiking upward in Bitcoin futures, in anticipation of that supposed increase in demand.  In... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

03/18/2024 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -38.961 -1765
Sum Index 3190.149 2424093

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.