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British Pound’s July Turning Point

weekly Chart In Focus

I will confess that I am not a “currencies guy”, although one of my early experiences with trading did involve currencies.  I was stationed in West Germany (so-called then, before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989), and I lived “on the economy” instead of in Army housing.  That meant that I had to procure Deutschemarks in order to pay my rent every month.

In those days, the Armed Forces Network (AFN) of radio stations would broadcast the exchange rate applicable for the next day at 1400... Read More

The Magic of 150 Months

weekly Chart In Focus

In a recent article featured in our twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter, we featured the chart shown this week.  It was inspired by some work done recently by famed technical analyst Peter Eliades, who has been a newsletter writer for many years and is the proprietor of www.stockmarketcycles.com

The basic point is that a period of 150 months (12.5 years) shows up in lots of places as the time distance between several important turning points for stock prices.  The price data... Read More

Uranium and Gold, Part II

weekly Chart In Focus

Last week, I wrote about the relationship between gold prices and uranium prices, and how looking at it a certain way there might be a bearish message for uranium prices.  I received a few emails, first notifying me that you actually can trade uranium on the Toronto exchange, under the symbol U.TO.  That is for the Uranium Participation Corp, which invests directly in uranium oxides.  It is like CEF or GLD for gold bullion, only for uranium. 

But a much more interesting message came from a... Read More

Uranium and Gold, a Peculiar Correlation

weekly Chart In Focus

You and I cannot trade uranium.  Saddam Hussein tried; it did not work out well for him.  So don’t try it.  Men will assuredly come and visit you if you do, and your life will become unpleasant.

But uranium has a price just like everything else, and you can track it at the web site for Cameco Corp., a uranium supplier.  Yes, THEY can trade uranium, while you cannot. 

This week’s chart highlights a fascinating correlation.  Gold prices as measured in dollars tend to move in sync with the... Read More

Crude Oil Leads Bond Yields

weekly Chart In Focus

What if I told you I could draw you a picture ahead of time for what the future of interest rate movements would look like?  That would be a cool trick, no doubt.  But that’s exactly what crude oil prices can do for us.

This relationship is part of a category of relationships that I refer to as “Liquidity Wave” phenomena.  The idea is that a price pattern which appears in one dataset can reliably show up later in another.  So if you see something happen in the leading data, you can... Read More

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

weekly Chart In Focus

The unemployment rate has not finished falling.  That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers

In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data.  It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate.  In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed... Read More

Eurodollar COT’s Leading Indication

weekly Chart In Focus

The second half of 2015 could be a problematic time for the US stock market, if this week’s chart is correct.  I introduced this relationship to Chart In Focus readers back in 2011, and it has been a regular feature in our twice monthly McClellan Market Report and our Daily Edition since 2010. 

The basic idea is that I take data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report on the commercial traders’ net position in eurodollar futures, and then use that as a leading indication for the... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


06/29/2015 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -178.690 -223197
Sum Index 167.980 -928983

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.