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T-Bond Open Interest Peak Looming

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It is time again to look to a fascinating signal from T-Bond futures open interest, one which gives really reliable signals, but only for a fraction of the time.  There is a really interesting price behavior that I have noticed in relation to this open interest peak, which I want to share with you this week.  

Every quarter, we have an expiration of T-Bond futures contracts.  And in the month before that expiration, there is typically a peak in total open interest among all T-Bond futures... Read More

More Good News for Employment

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The data on the U.S. unemployment rate have been getting progressively better over recent months, either because of or in spite of the government’s efforts, depending on one’s viewpoint.  And if this week’s chart is to be believed, then the data should continue to get better over the next several months.

What the chart shows is that the data from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey acts as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.  I am using a 10-month offset in... Read More

More from Investors Intelligence Data

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Last week I wrote about a rather unique way to look at the sentiment data from the weekly Investors Intelligence survey.  This week, I want to expand on that topic a little bit more, and cover the one piece of data in that weekly report which gets the least attention. 

Investors Intelligence surveys over 100 investment advisors and newsletter writers, and categorizes them as either (1) Bullish, (2) Bearish, or (3) “Correction”.  That last category is for advisors that are not willing to... Read More

Insights from Investors Intelligence Data

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Investors Intelligence has been publishing their survey of investment advisors and newsletter writers since 1963.  The initial presumption was that when all of the smart guys started leaning one way, then that was the way to lean.  But they quickly found that when even the smart guys are all convinced one way or the other, the market was more likely to move the other way.  Since then, the Investors Intelligence spread between %Bulls and %Bears has become a favorite contrarian sentiment... Read More

Deflation Is Getting Too Popular

 
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I cannot believe the volume of the news stories I am seeing in the financial media, with people worrying about impending deflation.  And as any card-carrying contrarian knows, when a topic gets too popular, you are near a turning point.  

To check that observation, I went to Google Trends and did a quick search on the term “deflation”.  What Google does is to then come back with a chart showing interest in that term over time among the news media.  And sure enough, October 2014 is showing... Read More

Summation Index Rate Of Change

 
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When the McClellan A-D Summation Index makes a big move in a short amount of time, that action contains important information.  This week, I’ll show a pair of charts that help to make this point. 

The Summation Index changes each day by the value of the McClellan Oscillator.  My mother Marian McClellan was a math major in the 1950s, when it was a lot less fashionable for women to undertake that avenue of study than it thankfully is today.  Back in the 1950s, they did not typically teach... Read More

COT Data Show A Bottom For Copper

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Last week I pointed out how the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data for currencies were pointing to a big topping condition for the dollar.  That top appears to have arrived, and if the dollar heads downward then that should provide a boost to prices for all sorts of commodities. 

A similar message comes from the COT data on copper futures, where we find that the commercial (big, smart money) traders are net long in a huge way.  That means as a group they are positioned for a big rally... Read More

Commercials Betting On Big Dollar Downturn

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently been in one of the biggest blowoff moves we have seen in years.  The lesson of the past blowoffs is that the downward slope out of the eventual top tends to symmetrically match the slope of the advance up into it. 

This week’s chart shows us that the commercial traders of various currency futures contracts are already making a huge bet on a dollar decline.  The indicator in the chart is one that I created several years ago by combining the commercial... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

11/25/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC 83.876 132377
Sum Index 2742.633 1223521

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.