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September Seasonality Finally Shows Up

 
weekly Chart In Focus

September has a well-deserved reputation for causing the market trouble, and the week after September options expiration is statistically the worst week of the year (per Rob Hanna of www.quantifiableedges.com).  This year, the stock market has been procrastinating about getting that seasonal weakness started, but now that we are in that worst week of the year, the market seems to be working extra hard to make up for lost time.  

The DJIA made its most recent new all-time high on Sep. 19,... Read More

A Gasoline BOTTOM?!!

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The terrorist group ISIS (AKA the un-Islamic non-state “Army of Satan”) is tying up major portions of oil-rich Mesopotamia.  Russian troops are occupying portions of Ukraine, which is a key portal for oil and natural gas to transit to western Europe.  And the oil-rich portions of Africa have been subjected to a viral outbreak that is causing the rich and educated in that region to flee for their lives, leaving the others to fend for themselves.  

So of course this geopolitical condition... Read More

Gold - Watch the €1000 Level

 
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Gold is still in a downtrend, if you examine a chart of gold prices measured in dollars.  But gold in euros looks much stronger, and that’s actually a bullish condition, eventually. 

People often ask at what dollar price is gold likely to find support or resistance.  But it can be argued that the dollar price of gold is not very relevant for a lot of the old-school technical tools.  The static price levels of prior highs and lows do not generally show much significance as support or... Read More

T-Bond Open Interest At a Peak

 
weekly Chart In Focus

One interesting piece of analysis we have featured recently in both our Daily Edition and our twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter involves total open interest in T-Bond futures.  There are four contract expirations per year, in March, June, September, and December, and total open interest tends to see a peak late in the month preceding each quarterly expiration. 

Specifically, the peak in open interest tends to fall between the 26th and 29th days of the month preceding... Read More

A-D Line Foretells Job Openings

 
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Back in 2011, I wrote about Why Even Fundamental Analysts Should Watch A-D Line, noting that the NYSE A-D Line is very strongly correlated to corporate profits.  But because the A-D Line can be calculated each day in real time, whereas corporate profits are reported with a significant lag, in effect the A-D Line gives a leading indication for what the profits data will look like once they are released.

The same point applies in this week’s chart, which compares the NYSE A-D Line to the... Read More

Small Cap Relative Strength

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The Russell 2000 Index has had a good month so far in August 2014, rebounding more strongly than the NYSE-dominated indices.  But that seeming strength just within August conceals what happened before in July 2014, when the Russell 2000 had a pretty bad month.

Comparing indices based on just a single month’s statistics can mislead investors and analysts.  For that reason, some type of relative strength analysis is in order.  One of the easiest ways is with a simple relative strength ratio. ... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

09/29/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -143.298 -176652
Sum Index 665.462 -582149

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.