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Echo Boomers Will Fire Up Housing Market

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Housing related stocks are seeing an earlier than called for push to a higher high.  But if lumber prices are right, there are lots more gains to come.

By that, I am referring to the way that lumber prices tend to give a 1-year leading indication for the share prices of housing related stocks, like those which make up the HGX Index.  In the chart above, the plot of lumber prices is shifted forward by 1 year to reveal how the up and down movements seen in lumber futures prices tend to get... Read More

Gold Bound To The Yen

 
weekly Chart In Focus

You might have to be a real inter-market analysis geek to know this, but for the past several years the fortunes of gold prices have been inexorably tied with those of the Japanese yen.  So to get a real gold decline, it makes sense that we should expect to also see a big drop in the value of the yen.

That ought not to be that hard to achieve.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is working hard on its own version of QE, spewing more yen onto their banking system.  And we just learned on Aug. 17 that... Read More

Quietest Range In 2 Decades

 
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The history of the SP500 dates all the way back to 1871, thanks to the work of the Cowles Commission in the 1930s which reconstructed an index of stock prices back that far.  That index eventually morphed into the SP500 we know today.

I mention this history, because we have just seen one of the quietest 2-year periods in the SP500 in all of its history.  That’s fun to know, but so what?  The “so what” comes from looking at what has followed similar low volatility periods in the past. ... Read More

Finding a Triangle Hiding In The Chaos

 
weekly Chart In Focus

I rarely talk about price objectives, because I have found that there are only a few reliable tools for that, and they only appear infrequently.  But I recently shared an interesting price objective with my Daily Edition readers, derived from the triangle structure shown in this week’s chart.

Edwards and Magee talked about the measuring objectives given by structures such as symmetrical triangles, flags/pennants, and head and shoulders in their classic book, Technical Analysis of Stock... Read More

Some True Stats About Crime Rates

 
weekly Chart In Focus

This being a campaign season, you are going to hear a lot of assertions about crime rates and the supposed solutions that various sides are proposing.  So this seems like a good time to share a few bits of truth about crime data in the US, and what it is correlated to, and not.

The chart above shows the best correlation I have found to the crime rate.  The annual growth rate in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is shifted forward by a year to reveal how its movements tend to show up a year... Read More