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Uranium’s Bearish Message for Gold

weekly Chart In Focus

With the Brexit vote now decided, a lot of attention has turned to gold as a supposed “safety” asset.  Most traders who lived through the big decline of 1980s do not think of gold as a “safe” asset.  And the message of this week’s chart is that expectations for a big gold price rally from here may be misplaced. 

A year ago, I wrote here about the role of uranium prices as a leading indication for what gold prices will do later.  A 7-month lead time seems to be ideal for getting the best fit... Read More

ECB QE Doing Opposite of Objective

weekly Chart In Focus

I like to say that there are only 2 fundamental factors which matter for the overall stock market:

1. How much money is there?

2. How much does that money want to be invested?

Change either of those, and the market will move up or down.  But 2016 is showing us a perverse version of that.  We are in opposite-world now. 

The Fed has backed away from the QE game, and is wishing it could find a sufficient excuse to start normalizing interest rates.  But the rest of the world is heading... Read More

Dollar’s Up Move Not Confirmed by Stocks

weekly Chart In Focus

Some people think they know what the relationship is between the US Dollar Index and stock prices.  But as I noted in a Chart In Focus article over a year ago, the correlation between stocks and the dollar regularly flips from positive to inverse.

A more lasting relationship is shown in this week’s chart.  It compares the Dollar Index to a relative strength ratio comparing the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indices.  That relative strength line moves upward when large caps are outperforming... Read More

El Niño, La Niña, & The Stock Market

weekly Chart In Focus

I like getting answers ahead of time.  And so I tend to be more open-minded than others about where I am willing to look for such answers.  If you look at the same things everyone else looks at, you'll get the same answers.  This one’s going to blow your minds away, so proceed slowly.

There is a relationship between the El Niño & La Niña cycles and the stock market, but it takes a trick of chartistry to see.  That’s what this week’s chart is all about.  It shows the changes in the sea... Read More

Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold

weekly Chart In Focus

There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices.  Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016.  But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition.  We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n<30 is problematic.  If you want to wait... Read More

Strong Summation Index Promises Higher Highs

weekly Chart In Focus

The strong breadth numbers which produced a new all-time high for the A-D Line this year also produced a really high reading for the Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI), the highest since 2012.  And that action conveys to us the promise of higher price highs.

But it does not preclude a meaningful correction first, and we appear to be in the midst of that right now.  The RASI is falling, as it typically does during corrective periods. 

The basic point is that after a correction like we... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


06/27/2016 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -165.064 -379261
Sum Index 3218.129 1046544

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.