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Crude Oil Leads Bond Yields

weekly Chart In Focus

What if I told you I could draw you a picture ahead of time for what the future of interest rate movements would look like?  That would be a cool trick, no doubt.  But that’s exactly what crude oil prices can do for us.

This relationship is part of a category of relationships that I refer to as “Liquidity Wave” phenomena.  The idea is that a price pattern which appears in one dataset can reliably show up later in another.  So if you see something happen in the leading data, you can... Read More

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

weekly Chart In Focus

The unemployment rate has not finished falling.  That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers

In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian unemployment rate to the UMich sentiment data.  It makes complete sense that how consumers are feeling should have a strong positive correlation to the unemployment rate.  In a recession, when more Americans are out of work, it would be natural for consumers to be bummed... Read More

Eurodollar COT’s Leading Indication

weekly Chart In Focus

The second half of 2015 could be a problematic time for the US stock market, if this week’s chart is correct.  I introduced this relationship to Chart In Focus readers back in 2011, and it has been a regular feature in our twice monthly McClellan Market Report and our Daily Edition since 2010. 

The basic idea is that I take data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report on the commercial traders’ net position in eurodollar futures, and then use that as a leading indication for the... Read More

Obama’s 2nd Term Much Like 1st for Stock Market

weekly Chart In Focus

We are now in the second term of President Obama’s term in office.  While the Presidential Cycle Pattern shows similarities among all presidential terms in the stock market’s behavior, it is poorly appreciated how the 2nd term is often different from the first in its character.

The lead chart this week compares the current behavior of the SP500 to an average of that same index’s behavior during second presidential terms.  The correlation is very good, except for a few exogenous events along... Read More

Volume Data Have Eased One Concern

weekly Chart In Focus

We focus a lot on the Advance-Decline (A-D) data, which is the basis for the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index plus other indicators.  But we also like to watch what the Up Volume (UV) and Down Volume (DV) numbers are doing. 

Generally speaking, a new high in the cumulative daily A-D Line is nearly always a bullish indication.  When big divergences develop, like what we saw at the 2007 and 2000 tops, it is an issue of great concern.

But we also like to see the volume data... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


05/27/2015 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -31.355 -64070
Sum Index 1703.394 808567

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.