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Deflation Is Getting Too Popular

weekly Chart In Focus

I cannot believe the volume of the news stories I am seeing in the financial media, with people worrying about impending deflation.  And as any card-carrying contrarian knows, when a topic gets too popular, you are near a turning point.  

To check that observation, I went to Google Trends and did a quick search on the term “deflation”.  What Google does is to then come back with a chart showing interest in that term over time among the news media.  And sure enough, October 2014 is showing... Read More

Summation Index Rate Of Change

weekly Chart In Focus

When the McClellan A-D Summation Index makes a big move in a short amount of time, that action contains important information.  This week, I’ll show a pair of charts that help to make this point. 

The Summation Index changes each day by the value of the McClellan Oscillator.  My mother Marian McClellan was a math major in the 1950s, when it was a lot less fashionable for women to undertake that avenue of study than it thankfully is today.  Back in the 1950s, they did not typically teach... Read More

COT Data Show A Bottom For Copper

weekly Chart In Focus

Last week I pointed out how the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data for currencies were pointing to a big topping condition for the dollar.  That top appears to have arrived, and if the dollar heads downward then that should provide a boost to prices for all sorts of commodities. 

A similar message comes from the COT data on copper futures, where we find that the commercial (big, smart money) traders are net long in a huge way.  That means as a group they are positioned for a big rally... Read More

Commercials Betting On Big Dollar Downturn

weekly Chart In Focus

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently been in one of the biggest blowoff moves we have seen in years.  The lesson of the past blowoffs is that the downward slope out of the eventual top tends to symmetrically match the slope of the advance up into it. 

This week’s chart shows us that the commercial traders of various currency futures contracts are already making a huge bet on a dollar decline.  The indicator in the chart is one that I created several years ago by combining the commercial... Read More

September Seasonality Finally Shows Up

weekly Chart In Focus

September has a well-deserved reputation for causing the market trouble, and the week after September options expiration is statistically the worst week of the year (per Rob Hanna of www.quantifiableedges.com).  This year, the stock market has been procrastinating about getting that seasonal weakness started, but now that we are in that worst week of the year, the market seems to be working extra hard to make up for lost time.  

The DJIA made its most recent new all-time high on Sep. 19,... Read More

A Gasoline BOTTOM?!!

weekly Chart In Focus

The terrorist group ISIS (AKA the un-Islamic non-state “Army of Satan”) is tying up major portions of oil-rich Mesopotamia.  Russian troops are occupying portions of Ukraine, which is a key portal for oil and natural gas to transit to western Europe.  And the oil-rich portions of Africa have been subjected to a viral outbreak that is causing the rich and educated in that region to flee for their lives, leaving the others to fend for themselves.  

So of course this geopolitical condition... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


10/24/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC 217.115 236892
Sum Index -124.610 -2518301

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.