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Fishing Around For a Gold Cycle Bottom

weekly Chart In Focus

The price bottom associated with gold's 13-1/2 month cycle is ideally due right now.  The problem is that gold does not always bottom exactly when it is supposed to, and there is still work yet to do.  By that I mean that there are tasks associated with this cycle bottom which gold has not yet accomplished.

I mentioned back in April 2014 that gold was currently in "left translation" for this current cycle, and that this implies we should see a price low at the cycle bottom which goes below... Read More

Inflation Arriving For A Short Stay

weekly Chart In Focus

Back in September 2013, I wrote about a unique new way to forecast inflation.  That piece called for a pickup in inflation, which has materialized, and so it is worth taking another look to see what more is ahead.

The unique idea is that global temperatures give us a 3-year leading indication for what inflation rates are going to do.  The relationship does not do it perfectly, just really well.  This week's chart zooms in closer on the relationship I introduced in that September 2013... Read More

Alarming Sign in NDX Stocks’ Drawdown

weekly Chart In Focus

The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year highs, levels not seen since the weeks just after the 2000 Internet Bubble top.  But it is interesting for us to see that the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high. 

And that 7% drawdown number is actually smaller than it has been recently, but it is still not back to the low drawdown reading of 6.0% that we saw in early March, before the Nasdaq 100 stocks got into a patch of trouble.  And the... Read More

Still The Only Chart That Matters

weekly Chart In Focus

The FOMC has continued to "taper" the monthly amounts of its purchases of Treasury bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), but the Federal Reserve is still pumping money into the banking system at a high rate.  Purchases in June are to total $45 billion, and it goes down to $35 billion in July 2014

But $35 billion a month is still a large number.  And the injection of this money is still pushing up the stock market.  This week's chart is one that I showed back in November 2013,... Read More

Crude Oil Abnormally Quiet

weekly Chart In Focus

The news stories about crude oil in the financial media have been all about how oil prices have been volatile based on the crisis in Ukraine, the crisis in Iraq, the crisis in Nigeria, the lack of a Keystone pipeline, etc.  But what has been underreported is that there has actually been hardly any volatility at all.

This week's chart features an indicator looking back over the past 4 months' closing prices for  crude oil futures, and measuring the spread between the highest and lowest... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


07/21/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -119.237 -81718
Sum Index 3097.025 1564282

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.