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Dollar Is Wandering Off Track

weekly Chart In Focus

It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates.  We are told, “Money goes where it is treated best”, and so the currency which offers the best interest rate will attract the most capital. 

But that does not really explain what has been happening over the past year.  The US Federal Reserve has kept short term interest rates near zero, and just about every other central bank around the world has done the same.  But the US... Read More

Utilities Leading the Market Higher

weekly Chart In Focus

The news out of the European Central Bank on Jan. 22 helped to lift the major averages higher.  The DJIA and SP500 have not yet made it back up to the level of their December 2014 highs, but the Dow Jones Utility Average has already pushed to a higher high.  That promises more upside movement for the rest of the market.

It is not surprising that utilities stocks tend to move up and down in sympathy with all of the rest of the stocks.  They are subject to many of the same forces of... Read More

The 18% Recession Threshold

weekly Chart In Focus

Last week I wrote about how big federal deficits are good for the stock market.  They are bad for total indebtedness that we are leaving for our grandchildren to deal with, but they are great for stock market investors.  In a similar way, when there is a very small deficit or even a surplus, it tends to be a big negative factor for stock prices.

This week I want to turn to just one part of the deficit equation, which is total federal receipts.  These data are published in the Monthly... Read More

Deficits Are Good, Sort Of

weekly Chart In Focus

A new Congress has been seated, and it brings the prospect of perhaps maybe potentially in a possible way doing something about the runaway federal deficits.  And in other news, several New York area bridges are for sale, which you can acquire at a bargain price.

Let us suppose, just for the sake of inquiry, that Congress ever actually did something to reduce the federal deficit, which would arguably be good for taxpayers (and for the grandchildren of taxpayers).  The question is: would... Read More

Euro Is Ripe For An Upturn

weekly Chart In Focus

The slide in the value of the euro currency in 2014 was epic, and it makes me leery about wanting to catch a falling knife.  But there are 3 big clues that an upturn for the value of the euro is coming.  How much of an upturn is not indicated, but it should at least be a noticeable upturn in the charts.

Item #1 is the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report.  It shows that commercial traders of euro currency futures contracts are now net long to the largest degree since July 2012.  The... Read More

Oil Follows Gold’s Crash Pattern

weekly Chart In Focus

With oil prices having been cut in half over the past 6 months, many analysts are forecasting what this means for the economy, for jobs, for consumer spending, etc.  But what I find interesting is the exact nature of the decline itself, and its resemblance to another recent decline in gold prices. 

We have to go back to 1986 to find a similar decline in oil prices.  There admittedly was a huge decline in 2008, from $145 down to $37 in just 8 months, but it came as the result of the pricking... Read More

Yield Curve’s Effect Thwarted By Fed’s Actions

weekly Chart In Focus

The Fed’s fingerprints are all over the charts.  Whether or not that is a good thing depends upon one’s point of view.  

The yield curve still matters, in spite of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 2007 assertions to the contrary.  During testimony on February 14, 2007 before the Senate Banking Committee, the following interchange took place:


Senator Bunning: "You are telling us today that an inverted yield curve down the road will not affect the economy.  Did I misunderstand that,... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


01/30/2015 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -38.820 -136761
Sum Index 1945.157 -407298

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.