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The Chart That Worries Me: HY Bond A-D Line

weekly Chart In Focus

There is no divergence yet between stock indices and the NYSE’s composite A-D Line.  But there is one in the High Yield Bonds A-D Line, and that is an early warning of big trouble to come.

High yield bonds usually trade more like stocks than like T-Bonds, and so that has led a lot of analysts to keep an eye on junk bond ETFs like HYG and JNK, especially if they show a divergence relative to stock price indices.  Those ETFs tend to be dominated by high yield bonds that are related to oil... Read More

Gold in Euros Not Confirming

weekly Chart In Focus

Since bottoming on Dec. 12, gold has had an impressive run higher, closing up on 13 out of the past 14 trading days.  Or at least that’s true for gold prices measured in dollars. 

But gold prices measured in euros have had a much more tepid response, and have not even made a higher high yet.  It is not a bad rally in the euro price of gold, but it is not confirming the higher high in the dollar price.  History shows that this is a problematic sign for the gold rally. 

Divergences are an... Read More

Gold’s 8-year Cycle

weekly Chart In Focus

We are now entering the upward phase of gold’s 8-year cycle, and that should bring some fun gains.  And this comes at a time when gold has not been getting much of investors’ attention.  If gold stays flat for a year, and Bitcoin twinkles to get all of the attention, speculators eventually drift away from gold.  That sets up a great opportunity for gold to start getting more attention, and more money thrown its way. 

As with most market cycles, gold’s 8-year cycle is measured... Read More

Architecture Billing Index Shows Continued Growth

weekly Chart In Focus

The folks at the American Institute of Architects, www.aia.org, publish an interesting set of data each month, collectively known as the Architecture Billing Index, or ABI.  The main ABI represents actual billings that member firms have sent out in the previous month.  They also have an “Inquiries Index”, which measures potential business as opposed to actual business.

The reason why I find examining the ABI so useful is that it correlates pretty well with GDP data, and we get the ABI data... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


01/16/2018 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -19.048 44563
Sum Index 3050.352 3653935

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.