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Yield Curve’s Effect Thwarted By Fed’s Actions

weekly Chart In Focus

The Fed’s fingerprints are all over the charts.  Whether or not that is a good thing depends upon one’s point of view.  

The yield curve still matters, in spite of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 2007 assertions to the contrary.  During testimony on February 14, 2007 before the Senate Banking Committee, the following interchange took place:


Senator Bunning: "You are telling us today that an inverted yield curve down the road will not affect the economy.  Did I misunderstand that,... Read More

What Hindenburg Omens and an Oil Crash Mean

weekly Chart In Focus

The two big financial news items in December have been the multiple Hindenburg Omen signals and the crash in crude oil prices.  I recently went on CNBC to talk about the former.  Its relationship to the latter is inescapable.

A Hindenburg Omen occurs when the number New Highs and New Lows on the NYSE both exceed a specified percentage of total issues.  See this article for more details.  There are other requirements, such as that the NYSE Comp be in an uptrend, and the McClellan Oscillator... Read More

Capitulation Not Over in Crude Oil

weekly Chart In Focus

Crude oil prices had a seemingly exhaustive washout selloff following the Nov. 27 OPEC meeting.  Oil bulls had been hoping for a production cutback at that meeting, but Saudi Arabia successfully led an effort to oppose such cuts. 

But the message from the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data is that the washout is not yet complete.  An exhaustive move like what we have seen should produce capitulation among the small speculators, but instead the readings from recent weeks showed them... Read More

GOFO Squeeze

weekly Chart In Focus

There is a big squeeze under way in the gold leasing market, a condition which is usually followed by a meaningful gold rally in the weeks that follow.

The London Bullion Market Association publishes data each day on the Gold Forward Offered Rate, or GOFO.  These are rates at which LBMA members are prepared to lend gold on a swap against U.S. dollars.  Right now, all lease periods out to 6 months are showing negative rates, meaning that the lessors are willing to actually pay you to borrow... Read More

T-Bond Open Interest Peak Looming

weekly Chart In Focus

It is time again to look to a fascinating signal from T-Bond futures open interest, one which gives really reliable signals, but only for a fraction of the time.  There is a really interesting price behavior that I have noticed in relation to this open interest peak, which I want to share with you this week.  

Every quarter, we have an expiration of T-Bond futures contracts.  And in the month before that expiration, there is typically a peak in total open interest among all T-Bond futures... Read More

More Good News for Employment

weekly Chart In Focus

The data on the U.S. unemployment rate have been getting progressively better over recent months, either because of or in spite of the government’s efforts, depending on one’s viewpoint.  And if this week’s chart is to be believed, then the data should continue to get better over the next several months.

What the chart shows is that the data from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey acts as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.  I am using a 10-month offset in... Read More

Daily Timing Chart


12/19/2014 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC 54.180 200610
Sum Index 1614.709 -505721

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator


OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.