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Is QE Good For Gold Prices?

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The total Fed holdings of Treasury debt and mortgage backed securities (MBS) held by the Fed are now up to $6.4 trillion, and up by $68.8 billion this week for the weekly data reported on Sep. 16.  All of that money-printing is adding to the total money supply, and it has assuredly helped to lift stock prices up out of the February to March 2020 Covid Crash. 

A lot of analysts believe that all of this money printing is bullish for gold prices.  That belief system actually makes a lot of... Read More

Circling Back to a Recent Non-Divergence

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Back on June 4, I wrote about how “Non-Divergences Are Better Than Divergences” in terms of seeing confirmations that there is more trending movement ahead.  Analysts get excited about marking the turning points for prices, but trends are where the money gets made.  So if you can get a message to not let go of a strong trend, and to not get shaken out on suspected trend change signals, that is a wondrous message to receive.

In that article, I shared the indicator which is featured again in... Read More

COT Report Data on Copper

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Many analysts believe that high copper prices are a bullish statement about the future of economic growth generally.  I would amend that slightly to say that rising copper prices make that statement.  But prices which are too high, especially without support, represent a problem, and a warning.

Copper prices fell during the Covid Crash in March 2020, along with everything else.  And they have rebounded nicely since then, going well above the January 2020 high and giving a bullish vote for... Read More

Rainbow Convergence In T-Bond Prices

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Back in February 2019, I gave a brief lesson on a bit of charting magic known as a “rainbow convergence”.  T-Bond prices this month have given us another great opportunity to examine this topic.

This week’s chart is one which has been featured frequently this month in our Daily Edition.  What we are seeing is a textbook example of what we call a Type 2 rainbow convergence.  But I am getting ahead of myself.

My father Sherman McClellan and I coined the name “rainbow convergence” back in... Read More

Commercial Traders Are Long Dollar Index Futures

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The big money “commercial” traders of US Dollar Index futures are holding a rare net long position as a group.  They spend most of their time biased to the short side, and so when they move to a net long position, it is an unusual and thus interesting statement, indicating that the Dollar Index should be bottoming.  The problem is, they are often early in adopting a large skewed position.

The weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report comes out every Friday from the CFTC, and reveals the... Read More

Gold and Consumer Sentiment - The Linkage

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Gold is up this year, which is not news to anyone likely to be reading this. And it is going up even faster than the stock market.  The effect of that difference in relative performance is that the DJIA/Gold Ratio in this week’s chart has been falling. 

And it turns out that a movement like this historically tends to match what is happening in the public’s mood.  That chart also includes the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, data for which can be found here.

The two plots... Read More

Lumber Prices Outpacing Timber

 
weekly Chart In Focus

The recovery from the Covid Crash has helped to boost lumber futures prices up to challenge the record high made in 2018.  That peak in 2018 came about when the U.S. government imposed “softwood lumber” tariffs on Canadian imports, an action resulting from a long running complaint to the WTO, which that body decided in favor of the U.S.

This time, the rapid rise is happening because mills have experienced workforce shutdowns due to Covid, and a simultaneous increase in demand for new home... Read More

Corn and Wheat Prices Headed Higher

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Farmers in the U.S. were excited this week about the news of China agreeing to buy 1.9 million tons of corn.  That news has not yet given a lift to corn futures prices, but this week’s chart says that a major multi-month uptrend is coming.

The movements of gold prices tend to show up again about 15 months later in grain prices.  And it works not just for corn, but also for wheat prices.

The wise reader may wonder why this phenomenon works so well, but wondering about that can get in the... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

09/18/2020 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -74.529 -148693
Sum Index 1886.326 1441732

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.