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Price = Sentiment

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Most of the behavior of market sentiment indicators is driven by what prices do.  This week’s chart is a case in point, showing the spread between the bullish and bearish percentages as reported by Investors Intelligence.  The attribute of these data that I want to call attention to is how closely this bull-bear spread resembles the price action of the SP500. 

There is a slight lag in that resemblance, owing to the data tabulation and reporting lags inherent to publishing any surveys of how... Read More

Yield Curve Really Does Matter for Unemployment

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Back in February 2007, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke actually said the following:

“I think the yield curve could be inverted for a considerable period without significant implications for the economy as a whole, yes--- possibly for some banks, but not for the economy as a whole.”  He said that in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.  To our knowledge, Dr. Bernanke has not been stripped of his degree in economics for that comment, as he rightfully should be.

This week’s chart... Read More

Gold’s Fellow Travelers Refute Its Higher High

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Gold prices recently swooped up to a rather spiky looking top, and on Feb. 21 a big drop started the work of unwinding that blowoff.  It was a good looking spike upward as far as gold itself was concerned.  But it did not come with confirmation from other prices which tend to move in sympathy with gold. 

This week’s chart compares gold futures prices to the Japanese yen.  Most of the time the two of them move together.  But occasionally they disagree, and that is when things get... Read More

50 Years Since Creation of the McClellan Oscillator

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It was 50 years ago in 1969 that my parents created what later became known as the McClellan Oscillator.  So this week, I thought I would share a little bit of that history, and offer a look at how it was done back then. 

My father Sherman McClellan is still alive and doing well at age 84, and I get the privilege of collaborating with him every day on our McClellan Market Report newsletter and our Daily Edition.  My mother Marian McClellan passed away from cancer in 2003.  The important... Read More

Rainbow Convergence: Some Charting Magic

 
weekly Chart In Focus

One of the chart features that I discuss quite often in my Daily Edition is what we call a “rainbow convergence”.  It is named for the point on the chart where all of the pretty moving average type lines come together.  Some of those indicators may be new to some readers, so you can get a quick tutorial on what they mean at this article

A rainbow convergence can be important to watch because the way that prices behave as it is happening gives us information about what lies ahead.  There... Read More