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AAPL Not Confirming Market’s Higher Highs

weekly Chart In Focus

The share price of Apple Corp (Nasdaq: AAPL) is not making higher highs along with the Nasdaq 100 Index, and historically that has indicated a problem for the overall market. 

AAPL is the largest component of the Nasdaq 100, and accounts for 12% of the index’s calculation based on the modified capitalization weighting of that index.  So it is natural that there is going to be a strong correlation in the price plots.  When the two are doing the same thing, that is what’s expected, and so it... Read More

Treasury-Bund Spread Says Dollar Has More Room to Fall

weekly Chart In Focus

In Dec. 2016, the monthly closing spread between yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes and the equivalent debt instrument from Germany was 2.24 percentage points, the highest reading we have seen since the 1980s.  As the spread has started to contract, we have watched the US Dollar Index make its biggest drop since 2011. 

Those German bonds are known as “bunds”, which is short for bundes which means “federal” in German, as in the Bundesrepublik Deutschland.  This week’s chart shows that the... Read More

Another Narrow Range for McClellan Oscillator

weekly Chart In Focus

Back in June, I introduced you to the indicator in this week’s chart, which examines how much movement the McClellan Oscillator has had over the preceding 15 trading days.  My timing was excellent, in that I so precisely picked the one time that a really low reading did not seem to matter at all. 

Most of the very low readings for this indicator mark meaningful tops for stock prices.  It was just my luck that I called attention to it just at the moment when a wonderful exception appeared. 

... Read More

Coppock Curve for DJIA Getting Up to High Level

weekly Chart In Focus

Years ago, a technical analyst and money manager named E.S.C. (Sedge) Coppock created an indicator that has since come to be known as the “Coppock Curve”.  Coppock never called it that himself, instead calling it his Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum Index.  That indicator is now getting up to a high level, which says that the uptrend is getting stretched.

What Coppock wanted was to have an indicator that would help identify the really juicy bottoming conditions which only appear every few... Read More

XIV Volume Showing Sign of a Price Top

weekly Chart In Focus

The short VIX trade has been described recently as “the most crowded trade” out there.  But traders of XIV, an inverse VIX ETN, have not been all that excited about it lately, judging by the trading volume.  And that says we have a topping condition for prices.

XIV invests in the two nearest month VIX futures contracts, so it is not a pure inverse VIX product.  The VIX futures sometimes behave a little bit differently from the spot VIX Index, and so anyone trading XIV should understand what... Read More

Silver COT: Commercials Betting Against Breakout

weekly Chart In Focus

The price of spot silver is trying really hard to break a long term downtrend line, which would arguably be a bullish development if the breakout succeeds.  But the big-money “commercial” traders of silver futures are betting heavily on a failure of that breakout attempt.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report is published every Friday by the CFTC, detailing futures positions held by traders in 3 different groups:
• Commercial traders are the big money, and usually the smart money.
•... Read More

Gold’s 13-1/2 Month Cycle: Right Translation

weekly Chart In Focus

Gold has been pushing up to higher closing highs, which is getting the gold bugs all excited.  But we are now late in the 13-1/2 month cycle that is dominant in gold prices, and so we should expect a drop into the major cycle low due at the end of 2017.

But there is a lot more to the 13-1/2 month cycle than just when to expect the major lows.  For starters, there is a mid-cycle low that usually arrives around the mid-point of the whole cycle.  The mid-cycle low is usually not as punctual as... Read More