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Why Don’t We Use Just Common-Only A-D Numbers?

weekly Chart In Focus

For as long as there have been Advance-Decline (A-D) data that people have been interested in following, there have been criticisms of that very A-D data for including “the wrong sorts” of issues.  Back in 1962, Joe Granville and Richard Russell both pointed to the big divergence between the NYSE A-D Line and the major averages like the DJIA.  That divergence preceded a 27% decline in the DJIA, so in that moment the A-D Line suddenly became much more interesting to a lot of people.

But... Read More

DJI Oscillator Positive Index

weekly Chart In Focus

The DJIA itself might be hanging around all-time highs, but its components are telling a different story.  When a higher index high is made on declining participation, that’s a problem.

The indicator in this week’s chart is one I thought up about 20 years ago, one of a set of indicators that look at the 30 Dow stocks to see what they are doing.  This is a type of “diffusion index”, which describes an indicator that looks at the behaviors of each member of a group in order to generalize... Read More

Huge Imbalance in Crude Oil Positions

weekly Chart In Focus

There is a giant wall of short positions held by the smart-money “commercial” traders in crude oil futures, and it is going to lead oil prices to come crashing down. 

Each week, the CFTC reports on the numbers of long and short positions held by futures traders.  They are broken down into 3 separate groups:

Commercials – Those engaged in the business related to that commodity.  They are the big money, and thus presumably the smart money.  Think Cargill for grains, or Goldman Sachs for... Read More

Higher Drug Related Fatal Crashes After Marijuana Legalization

weekly Chart In Focus

I don’t smoke pot, and I generally don’t like hanging around with people who do.  This applies especially to those who are driving in the lane beside me, doing 70 MPH on the Interstate. 

At the same time, I don’t really appreciate having the government tell me what I can or cannot put into my body.  Tell that other fellow, but don’t tell me. 

I live in Washington State, which since the Nov. 2012 election has been undertaking a great social experiment thanks to a popular referendum which... Read More

SPECIAL EDITION - Bitcoin Follow Up

weekly Chart In Focus

Bitcoin prices have burst out to a higher high, getting a lot of people excited.  So I figured this was a good time for a follow up to my Jan. 26 Chart In Focus article.

That article a month ago illustrated the similarities between the price patterns in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Comp from an earlier period.  The chart above is the same one I showed in that earlier article, updated for how Bitcoin prices have behaved since then.  One key point to observe is that the time scales for each plot... Read More

Crude Oil Foretold the Trump Rally 10 Years Ago

weekly Chart In Focus

President Trump is being given credit for the post-election rally, based on analysts’ understandings of investors’ assumptions about what potential policy changes might mean.  And someday, I am pretty sure Mr. Trump is going to be blamed for a stock market selloff he similarly had nothing to do with.  Such is the nature of the media. 

The uptrend still underway was foretold by crude oil prices 10 years ago, as this week’s chart illustrates.  This leading indication is one of the most fun... Read More