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Small Speculators in Crude Oil Are Still Eager

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Every Friday in my Daily Edition, I cover some of the interesting insights in the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, published on Fridays by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).  That report lists the totals of trader positions in different categories for 314 different futures contracts (at last count).  This week's chart looks at the net position of the "non-reportable" traders of crude oil futures.

The non-reportable category has that name because the traders in that... Read More

A String of Up Fridays

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Trading on Fridays is different from trading on other days of the week.  For a trader to be a buyer on Friday, that trader has to be pretty confident that the market, and his particular stock, can survive a whole weekend's worth of event risk without the ability to trade out of that position.  So when we see a string of mostly up Fridays, that is a sign of trader confidence, and thus of a price top.  Similarly, a string of mostly down Fridays is a sign of pessimism.

Years ago I sat down and... Read More

Gold Shows an Oil Price Bottom Ahead

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Gold is valuable, not just as a tradable commodity, but because it knows things about the future which are useful.  One of the things that gold knows is what crude oil prices are going to do.

The chart this week shows gold prices shifted forward by 19.8 months, and compared to crude oil prices.  This time shift is done to better portray how gold's price movements get echoed after that length of time in the movements of oil prices.

This is assuredly not a perfect model, just a really good... Read More

Cattle Prices Have Outrun Grain Prices

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Most of the time, corn prices move in step with the futures prices for live cattle.  This makes some sense from a meteorological standpoint, as better growing conditions for corn also mean better conditions for grasses (hay), and so cattle ranchers can produce cattle more economically.  There is a bit of a lag sometimes, since cattle ranchers cannot immediately ramp up production of more cattle when grain prices and other inputs fall.  Biology dictates that it requires a certain amount of... Read More

Inflation Rising Right On Schedule

 
weekly Chart In Focus

It makes a lot of people uncomfortable when I talk about the interrelationships between climate data and economic data.  This is not how people were taught to think in their college economics classes, about how the economy supposedly works, and so it must be some kind of voodoo.  But irrespective of how people feel about such information, there is a lot we can learn from it.

We are now seeing signs of inflation turning higher, not just in the CPI numbers but also in the Fed's favorite... Read More

Total Number of Stocks Is Shrinking

 
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The major averages may still be trending higher, but the total numbers of issues traded on the NYSE and Nasdaq peaked back in January 2022 and have been declining since then.  This is not a bullish sign for the financial markets.

The Nasdaq market has looser listing standards than the NYSE, and so it attracts a larger number of total listings.  But ease of doing an IPO on the Nasdaq sometimes means marginal companies which should not come public do so anyway, and then struggle afterward. ... Read More

Doctor Copper Has A Message On Inflation

 
weekly Chart In Focus

One trite Wall Street saying is that copper is the only metal with a PhD in economics.  This is because copper is an industrial metal, the demand for which waxes and wanes with economic growth and shrinkage.  So falling copper prices can be a sign that economic trouble lies ahead, and the converse is also true.

I would argue that copper's more reliable role is as a leading indicator of inflation, as illustrated in this week's chart.  It shows the price of copper, shifted forward by 2 months... Read More

Bitcoin Matching Gold’s Footsteps

 
weekly Chart In Focus

Last September, I wrote here about how there has been a change in what Bitcoin is and how it behaves.  Bitcoin prices are now walking in the footsteps of gold, and have been since about April 2022.  I should emphasize here that the magnitudes of the price movements in each market do not match.  It is all about the direction of movement and the timing of the turns.  But I figure that in any market, if I get the direction and timing right, then the magnitudes can take care of themselves.

The... Read More

 
Daily Timing Chart

 

05/29/2024 IssuesVolume(000s)
McC OSC -190.695 -196686
Sum Index 2568.304 2275128

More Data

The McClellan Oscillator

 

OscillatorCreated 1969, the McClellan Oscillator is recognized by technical analysts as the essential tool for measuring acceleration in the stock market. Using advance-decline statistics, it gives overbought and oversold indications, divergences, and measurements of the power of a move.