Pull the trigger with confidence.

We look deeper into market trends. Our analysis puts our readers ahead of price movements... and ahead of the public. For over 40 years, institutional investors and individual traders have relied on our forecasts. Get the edge you've been missing.

   Subscribe Now

High Grade Bond Summation Index Oversold

weekly Chart In Focus

The world was convinced that inflation was imminent, that bond yields were rising, and thus that investors ought to dump anything bond related.  The 10-year T-Note was assuredly headed north of 3%, people were going to stop taking out mortgages, companies were going to stop investing, and inflation was going to be the “new normal”. 

But wait!  That sentiment appears to have been overdone, and bond prices got oversold.  We can measure the oversold condition of T-Bond prices in a large... Read More

A Follow-Up On 3 Charts

weekly Chart In Focus

We are at a fascinating turning point in the market’s path, and it is worth reviewing some recent Chart In Focus stories to see how they turned out, and to look at what might lie ahead.  I usually refrain from doing reruns, but in each case there is new information that I find interesting, and which I have already shared with our McClellan Market Report and Daily Edition subscribers.  I hope you will find them interesting too.  So here goes.

Back on Feb. 15, I wrote about “Stock Market In a... Read More

It’s the Fed, Yanking The Punchbowl

weekly Chart In Focus

We were having a perfectly nice low-volatility uptrend until Jan. 26, and everyone was happy.  Since then, the inverse VIX ETN known as XIV has blown up (a great case of a “burning LOH” marker), and traders are starting to remember that stock prices actually can go down.  So why now?

As with most bear markets and recessions, the blame goes to the Federal Reserve, which decided last year that it would start unwinding all of the QE buying of T-Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) that... Read More

Volatility and Interest Rates

weekly Chart In Focus

Why is the VIX spiking now?  Because now is when it is supposed to do that.

Volatility and interest rates have an interesting relationship, going back many years.  Higher interest rates pull money away from the stock market, and thus make it so that prices have to travel farther to find liquidity, after a positive or negative stimulus.

The word “volatility” gets thrown around a lot in our business.  We should all remember that it gets borrowed from the world of chemistry.  It refers to... Read More

Stock Market In a Rogue Wave

weekly Chart In Focus

The stock market is just coming out of a big rogue wave event.  And that gives us clues about what lies ahead.

The term “rogue wave” gets used in other areas of science, most notably in analysis of big waves in the ocean.  But they can occur in any medium where wave action is present, not just the ocean.  They have even been observed in the transmission of light waves through fiber optic cables.

Rogue waves in the ocean get a lot of attention, especially from ship designers who need to... Read More

Big Change In Bull-Bear Spread

weekly Chart In Focus

The latest data from Investors Intelligence showed a huge change this week.  Bulls dropped from 66% to 54.4%, and bears rose from 12.6% to 15.5%.  That means the spread between bulls and bears dropped by 14.5 percentage points, which is the biggest one-week drop since July 2011.  Drops of more than 6 percentage points usually mark washout bottoms for prices. 

That July 2011 drop in the bull-bear came as prices crashed down 19%, following the sudden cutoff of QE2.  And there was a similar... Read More