Cass Trucking Data Shift Positive

There has just been an improvement in the US trucking fleet data, according to the folks at Cass Information Systems, and it has bullish implications for the stock market. 

Cass publishes data each month on several categories of trucking data.  The chart above shows the 12-month rate of change (12ROC) for the Cass Freight Shipments and Expenditures Indices.  When both of these are positive, it carries a strong positive message for the stock market.  If both are negative, that carries a big negative message for stocks.  Sometimes their message is mixed, which has been the case recently.  But last month the Shipments Index 12ROC jumped up to positive territory.

That puts both of the 12ROCs above zero, which is a very bullish condition for the stock market.  Stocks have been able to trend higher without that message, thanks in part to the Fed which has been helping with an unwind of its former $2.5 trillion book of Reverse Repurchase Agreements, and then starting in December 2025 with the commencement of the fifth ever round of Quantitative Easing (QE5).

Trucking does well when the economy in general does well.  Trucking has a problem now with very high diesel fuel prices, which is part of why the Expenditures Index 12ROC has been positive.  The Shipments Index measures the stuff getting moved more than the amount getting spent on it, and so the message is that the economy is moving stuff and shipping customers are willing to pay for that. 

At major stock market price tops we have seen these freight data start to show signs of tiring.  That is not what we are seeing now, so the implication is that the bull market ought to be able to continue for a while longer, even without manipulation from the Federal Reserve.