Economic Relationships


Follow Up To Question of Gold Being Overvalued

This is a good question, I'd like to offer a ridiculous oversimplification which will hopefully be nevertheless enlightening. Imagine a world where all of the people die of some unknown disease, but somehow an airplane with 200 people crashes safely on… more

Personal Consumption Expenditures for Gasoline

I found some interesting data to play with today, published by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.3.5 of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables shows Personal Consumption Expenditures. It breaks down these data into major types… more

Contango/Backwardation in Oil and Gold

It is an interesting question you ask.  I have not studied the differences in gold futures pricing quite as methodically as my studies of crude oil futures, but I have taken enough of a look to see that it is a… more

The Avocado Effect and the Hog Cycle

July 2005 The recent upsurge in demand for shipping of goods around the world has spurred a rise in ship leasing rates. Having a finite number of ships and an increasing demand for those ships to transport goods is a recipe… more

Oil Prices Could Be Our Boll Weevil

In the center of the old downtown in Enterprise, Alabama, in the middle of the main intersection, sits the Boll Weevil Monument. We’re not kidding, it is a real monument to an insect pest which damages cotton crops. I once lived… more

Fed Waking Up To Inflation Problem

You have probably heard a lot more worrying about inflation reflected lately in the comments from Fed officials. There is good reason for them to worry, and they should have been worried long before now. The point which has to be… more

Unemployment and Interest rates

If so, could you post a chart, if it's handy and NOT a hassle, plotting the unemployment rate and the 10 Year Treasury rate? The exact relationship between unemployment and interest rates is less than satisfying when viewed using both sets… more

Bond-Oil Headscratcher

I have been noticing that too. The somewhat perverse logic that has been offered in the MSFM (main stream financial media) to explain this phenomenon is that bond traders see rising oil prices as having an anti-inflationary effect (huh?!!), since higher… more