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October 21, 2021

Treasury-Bund Yield Spread Shows Troubling Divergence

The 10-year T-Note is yielding 1.636% as of Oct. 20.  The equivalent German bond is still at a negative yield of -0.119, although that yield is rapidly racing upward toward positive territory.  These German bonds are referred to in the bond market as “bunds”, which is short for the German word “bundes”, meaning federal. The interesting point about this yield spread between U.S. and German 10-year bonds is how well that spread correlates to the movements of the stock market.  Or at least that is the case most of the time.  When they start disagreeing, that is when the relationship gets… more


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