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April 28, 2016

T-Bonds Repeating Pattern of Year Ago

This time, the headline says it all. So many investors believe that it is the Fed that determines interest rates, and thus bond prices.  Or alternatively, it is the mysterious force of inflation that drives interest rates.  But the current evidence suggests it is just the calendar which is really in charge.  Seasonality is not historically a part of how T-Bond prices behave.  You can calculate an annual seasonal pattern for anything.  That does not mean it will be meaningful, or reliable.  Heck, you could calculate a 9-1/2 month seasonal pattern, or 22.3 months, or any time period you like; the… more


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